From last week: “The S&P 500 is leading the way to the upside but failed to clear the prior week’s high and is grappling with a clear resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this resistance would be bullish.”
This week saw the decisive breakout and a new all-time high weekly close on the S&P 500. The Nasdaq 100 also made a slight new all-time high intraday but closed lower back below prior resistance.
The Dax gapped higher at the start of the week and rallied to its highest level since August last year. Only the Nikkei is currently in a long-term downtrend. All the other stock indices are in a bull market.
Gold has seen some wild daily price swings this week but continues to hold above support, and the trend remains up. The trend is also up for Palladium, which made an all-time high weekly close.
The Dollar had a strong week, which held off the potential change of trend to down and remains in a long-term uptrend. The British Pound fell to its lowest level since the 1st week of the year. UK Gilt prices are indicating rate cuts on the horizon, which is putting pressure on the Pound.
Interest rate futures
From last week: “However, there has been a bearish divergence between price and RSI, as mentioned last week, as well as volatility contraction, and declining volume. The trend remains up, but weakness towards a test of support looks likely.”
Interest rate futures made new highs on Friday but made a key reversal day. Price action on the 10 Year T-Note engulfed the real bodies of the last 11 days, which suggests that further weakness lies ahead and that support will be broken on both the 5 & 10 Year Notes this week.