Weekly Update – 4 July 2020 – LS Trader

The past week was a shortened trading week due to the US Independence Day Holiday.

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 continues to be the leader in global stock indices, rallying for each of the four trading days this week to print new all-time highs. Friday’s close was a new weekly and daily all-time high close. This is not something you see in downtrends! When long, one should be long the strongest market in that asset class or sector, and when short, short the weakest.

However, the strength in the Nasdaq 100 is not present in other stock indices, so we continue to have bearish non-confirmation. The S&P 500, by contrast, remains below its June high and significantly below its all-time high printed back in February.

Commodities

From last week: “Gold exceeded resistance at 1789 but so far without follow through. The long-term uptrend remains intact, and we may see further rally if the market can clear 1800.” August Gold made its way above the 1800 level but has been unable to close above it. Silver continues to lag Gold but is within range of a change of long-term trend to up. For now, the trend remains down for Silver and downside breakouts below the 200-day moving average are also within range.

Copper completed a long-term trend change to up this week and is now at pre-crisis levels not seen since January.

Currencies

The currency markets remain quiet and continue to consolidate. The long-term trends remain mixed.

Interest rate futures

The 5 Year T-Note rallied to a new all-time high. The 10-year also moved out of the sideways channel briefly this week. As yet, neither market has made further gains.

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