The Nasdaq 100 did not make a new all-time high this week and sold-off from Tuesday, violating the trendline and short-term support. Friday did see some buying come in to close the market off the lows with a sping. The trend remains up.
The metals markets have seen some big moves, with Gold and Silver making multi-year highs. Silver looks vulnerable to a correction due to reaching a volatility extreme this week.
From last week: “Lumber was the big mover of the week, closing the week with a 10.33% gain. Volatility has reached its highest level in almost 18 months so we may be due a correction back to fair value.” Lumber opened the week higher but then reversed from the volatility extreme mentioned last week and pulled back to value. Buying came in from Thursday’s low. The market remains extended and will likely move sideways for a bit from here. The trend remains up.
The currency markets have started to move following weakness from the dollar. The Dollar Index itself completed a change of trend to down, while EUR/USD completed a change of trend to up. The long-term trend is now down for the dollar against all majors except the British Pound.
Interest rate futures
Interest rates futures continue to grind gradually higher in a very low volatility environment, with a slight upward bias. The eventual breakout from this low volatility range should yield a decent move, with the bias currently to the upside in the direction of the primary trend. However, the price action is far from compelling.