Weekly Update – 17 February 2019 – LS Trader

This Monday is Presidents’ Day in the US, so US markets will be closed, and it will, therefore, be a shortened trading week. Seasonally we are in a bullish time of year for stocks, but the long-term trend remains down.

Elsewhere, the trend remains up for the dollar, metals and interest rate futures, and mixed for the remaining commodities.

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 is leading stocks to the upside, and the RSI has moved decisively above the 60 level, which is bullish. However, the long-term trend remains down for global stocks.

Commodities

Gold managed to hold just above support and closed very near its highest close in almost ten months. The long-term trend is up for all the metals except for Copper. Copper is, however, within the range of an upside breakout and change of long-term trend to up.

Palladium remains in a monster bull market and posted new all-time highs on Friday, as well as making an all-time closing high. Sentiment remains elevated, but it has been at or near extremes many times since September. The LS Trader system has been long Palladium since the 19th September 2018, and it is by far the most profitable open position at present.

Currencies

The Dollar has had a mixed week, gaining against some majors and declining against others. The Dollar Index itself tested resistance but has been unable to push through. The RSI is also finding resistance at the 60 level. The Euro fell to its lowest level since April 2017, basis the back-adjusted continuous contract, but did see some buying coming in from the low on Friday, with a strong demand tail evident on the daily charts. The RSI is finding support at the 40 level, so last week’s low appears to be a critical support level.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures have been unable to break through resistance so far, but remain in long-term uptrends. The UK Long Gilt did break resistance intra-day, but so far without follow-through.

Commitments of Traders reporting data is catching up after the US government shutdown. The data is still a week or so behind, but still shows commercials as net long, indicating further price strength and lower interest rates.

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