The past week has been one of the wildest weeks in a long time. The Presidential election result in favour of Trump prompted some significant moves, particularly in stocks and the dollar. The initial knee-jerk reaction was a steep sell-off in stocks and the dollar. Both moves got quickly overdone and were reversed equally quickly, so much so that the Dow 30 recovered from its steep sell-off to post new all-time highs by Friday!
While all the pollsters, bookies and most of the market got the outcome of the US Presidential election wrong, our indicator, which we published in last week’s update had the odds of a Trump victory at 87%.
From the previous week: “The US stock market has been the most reliable indicator for picking US elections. Using pricing data for the three months up to the election has an 86.4% accuracy reading. When the stock market rises during those three months, the incumbent President or party wins. When the stock market is down over those three months, the challenger wins.
With the S&P 500 closing lower for nine consecutive days for the first time since 1980, the implied odds of a Trump victory are around 87%. Of the last 22 Presidential elections, this indicator has only been wrong three times, 1956, 1968 and 1980.
Have the bookies got it wrong again, just as they did with Brexit?”
Polling is of very limited use as has been shown by Brexit and the US Presidential election. Bookies are also getting it wrong. They make the mistake of using subjective information instead of market-based information.
From last week on the Nasdaq 100: “As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 also closed lower for nine consecutive days but remains above its 200-day MA. Volume has stayed above average during this decline, which indicates that the selling may not yet be over. We can expect a test of support at 4625.”
The selling was not over in the Nasdaq 100, and we did get a successful test and break of support at 4625, with the market falling all the way to 4558.5 before putting in a massive reversal. That reversal low marks a key footprint on the market as it was also a 300% volume day. The 4558.5 low is going to be heavily defended the next time it is tested. For now, the long-term trend remains up.
We got a very similar price rejection in the S&P 500, which recovered back to within a few points of its all-time high. The Trump victory is now being perceived as bullish by the market, probably mostly based on the view that he will employ Keynesian stimulus packages. Time will tell, but a breakout to new highs is likely.
The Dax and Nikkei have also shown similar price action and both might breakout to resume their long-term uptrends this week.
From last week: “Copper has seen considerable strength and this week broke out of the symmetrical triangle that has been in place since January. The rally has been supported by above average volume, so we may see further strength and a change of trend to up.” We did get the expected strength and change of trend as Copper went on a huge rally, closing higher for thirteen consecutive days before a sharp one-day reversal on Friday.
The other metals also saw some large moves. Gold’s sell-off was sufficient to complete a change of trend to down, and Silver, which fell some 7.34% on Friday alone, may complete a change of trend this week.
The dollar has had a wild ride having initially sold-off against most of the majors before putting in a large reversal. Dollar strength was sufficient to push the Euro down to its lowest level since March, and we should see new lows for the year before too much longer.
The best performer against the dollar was the British Pound, which rose for a second consecutive week to reach its highest level since early October. It also tested its 50-day moving average for the first time since early September. The trend is still unquestionably down for the Pound and will likely remain so, but we may see some additional corrective strength before the downtrend resumes.
Interest rate futures
The interest rate futures markets had almost unprecedented swings during the week. They initially sold off, rallied, and then went into a waterfall decline. The sell-offs were sufficient for changes of the long-term trend to down for the 30 Year T-Bond, and both 5 & 10 Year T-Notes. The selling was accompanied by 300% volume readings, so a major macro shift has been seen and we may see further weakness over the coming weeks and months.