Weekly Update – 29 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks declined this week for the second consecutive week. It’s interesting to note that resistance held in price and at the 60 level on the RSI, which keeps the RSI in the bear range even though the long-term price trend is up.

Commodities

Gold tested support on Friday and printed a bullish hammer pattern. The long-term trend remains up, but the support zone around 1488 seems key to the short-term price action.

Palladium was, once again, the strongest of the metals, as it rallied to new all-time highs, and made all all-time high close.

The energy markets remain in the middle of the range, with the long-term trend down for all markets except for Natural Gas.

Currencies

It’s been a bullish week for the Dollar, as the Dollar Index made a new high close for the current move. Naturally, this coincided with the Euro making a new low. Sentiment remains bullish for the Dollar and bearish for the Euro. There are some possible bullish factors for the Euro, which may lead to a bounce in addition to sentiment, and these are momentum divergence between price and RSI, and heightened volatility.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures rallied for a second straight week, with the long-term trend still up. A test of the recent highs cannot be ruled out in the coming weeks.

The RSI is now back to testing the 60 level having held at bull market support at the 40 level at the September the 13th lows. A decisive move above 60 on the RSI would suggest further strength towards recent highs.

Weekly Update – 22 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks 

Stocks had a mixed week after failing to take out the prior week’s highs and rally to new all-time highs. The long-term trend for US stocks remains up, and a breakout to new all-time highs is likely in the coming weeks.

The Nikkei and the Dax, currently still in long-term downtrends, are within range of upside breakouts and a change of trend to up.

Commodities

The energy sector saw massive moves this week after gapping sharply higher on Monday on geopolitical events. The long-term trend for energies was and still is down, except for Natural Gas. However, the size of last week’s moves has taken the markets to within range of a change of trend to up.

Palladium was, once again, the strongest of the metals, as it rallied to new all-time highs.

Currencies

The Dollar had a better week as it rallied against most of the majors, keeping the long-term Dollar bull trend intact. The Euro had rallied against the Dollar sufficiently to test resistance, but resistance held, and the market turned lower. 

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures put in a robust five-day rally this week to correct some of the recent declines. The long-term trend remains up for the sector, and new highs cannot be ruled out. It will take significant further decline for a change of trend to down to come within range, and that prospect looks to be months away at present.

Weekly Update – 15 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks rolled to the December contract during another bullish week. New all-time highs could be seen this week. The S&P 500 came close to an all-time high on Friday but printed a bearish shooting star pattern as resistance held firm. This has the market at a critical resistance level. The RSI has also closed right on the 60 level, so price action next week could be decisive. Price action in the Nasdaq 100 was very similar. The long-term trend remains up for US stocks.

The Dax and Nikkei are both within range of upside breakouts and changes of long-term trend to up.

Commodities

The metals markets saw mixed trading. Silver got crushed, and Gold also declined, with both markets breaking support and bringing an end to the uptrend for now. Palladium rallied to print new all-time highs. Copper continued its recovery rally, making its highest print since July.

Currencies

We’ve written in recent weeks about the bullish commercial position in the British Pound and the importance of the $1.20 level. The $1.20 level did provide support, and a strong rally has followed. The Pound is now at its highest level since July, and commercials remain near a record net long position.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures saw a second week of heavy selling with support being broken. The uptrend is over, at least for now. Weakness has been so extreme in the past two weeks that the RSI has broken the 40 level and is now in the bear range. Considerable further weakness will be required for a long-term trend change to down, and the trend remains up.

Weekly Update – 8 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks had another bullish week. The long-term uptrend remains up for US stocks, and we could see new all-time highs in both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 this week.

This week sees both stock indices and currencies roll to the December contract.

 

Commodities

Silver rallied to a new high for the current move but then put in a sharp reversal, printing a shooting star on the weekly chart. The trend remains up, and the market is above support. The chart structure looks incomplete, so new highs are expected once this correction ends. Gold has also seen weakness on Thursday and Friday, and also remains above support.

 

Currencies

From last week: “The Pound ended the week lower by 0.99%. There will likely be further Brexit shenanigans this week. The long-term trend remains down, but commercials remain very close to an all-time net long position. Sentiment remains negative, with only 17% reporting as bullish. $1.20 remains a crucial level.” The Pound dipped below the $1.20 level but then reversed sharply, bringing the downtrend to an end for now.

The dollar has had a mixed week, ending lower against most of the majors.

 

Interest rate futures

The long-term trend remains up for interest rate futures, but the sector has seen some weakness this week. However, the markets all remain above support, and Friday saw a bullish hammer pattern printed, indicting that the lows are being rejected.

Weekly Update – 1 September 2019 – LS Trader

Monday is Labour Day in the US, so US markets will be closed.

Stocks

Stocks had a bullish week. US stocks reversed from above key support and remain in long-term uptrends.

The Nikkei rallied sufficiently to break resistance and bring the downtrend to an end for now. Both the Nikkei and Dax remain in long-term.

Commodities

Silver exploded higher this week, rallying above 1800 to make its highest print since November 2011. Gold made its highest print since April 2013. Both metals came off their highs for the week by Friday’s close, but the trend remains up.

Currencies

The Pound ended the week lower by 0.99%. There will likely be further Brexit shenanigans this week. The long-term trend remains down, but commercials remain very close to an all-time net long position. Sentiment remains negative, with only 17% reporting as bullish. $1.20 remains a crucial level.

The Dollar had a strong week, with the Dollar Index rallying by 1.36% to end the week at its highest level since May 2017. This dollar rally pushed the Euro to its lowest level also since May 2017. Sentiment on the Euro has fallen to only 9% bulls, but, unlike the Pound, there is barely any commercial buying to be seen.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures rallied again this week to new highs for the current move. UK Long Gilts recovered from the breach of support during the prior week to hit new all-time highs and resume the uptrend. All five markets that we trade in the interest rate futures sector are bullish and remain in long-term uptrends.

Weekly Update – 25 August 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both ended the week lower, but remain in long-term uptrends. However, price has now fallen to the middle of the range, and a change of trend to down is within range and could be seen over the coming weeks.

The Nikkei held below resistance and remains in a long-term downtrend. The Dax rallied sufficiently to kick us out of our short position, but the trend remains down, and we may soon see a new breakout to the downside.

 

Commodities

Gold declined during the week but put in a strong rally on Friday. Silver traded similarly. Both markets ended the week with a new high close for the current move.

Copper remains the only metal in a long-term downtrend. Friday saw Copper decline to a new low for the current move. The weakness seen on Thursday and Friday was accompanied by above-average volume.

 

Currencies

From last week: “The British Pound has held support. The trend remains down, but new strength suggests resistance may be tested soon. Commercials remain very near an all-time net long position.” The Pound rallied and broke resistance as expected, bringing an end to the downtrend for at least the short-term. The long-term trend remains down, but prices are rallying in the short-term. Powered by near-record net long commercials, this rally could go further than many expect.

 

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures declined during the week but found support on Friday to keep the uptrend intact. The long-term trend remains up across the board.

UK Long Gilts were the weakest in the sector, and they broke short-term support this week, resulting in the LS Trader system exiting its second-most profitable trade of the year, where we had been long since May, capturing a huge move.

Weekly Update – 18 August 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

The Dax completed a change of long-term trend to down, but so far without follow-through. The Dax joins the Nikkei in a long-term downtrend, but neither index has made any progress to the downside since the breakout.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both continue to trade in volatile fashion but remain in long-term uptrends.

Commodities

Gold reached its highest level since May 2013. Silver reached its highest level in 14 months. Both remain in long-term uptrends. Copper is the only metal currently in a long-term downtrend. Copper retraced this week to test the prior breakout level, which is now acting as resistance. The RSI remains in the bear range.

The energy markets continue to trade in a volatile fashion. Brent Crude, Natural Gas and Heating Oil are all in long-term downtrends. The latter rallied above short-term resistance this week.

Currencies

The British Pound has held support. The trend remains down, but new strength suggests resistance may be tested soon. Commercials remain very near an all-time net long position.

The long-term trends continue to favour the dollar overall. The Dollar Index itself has continued its receiver since support held.

Interest rate futures

The 30-year T-Bond made a new high print since October 2016 as interest rate futures continue to rally. Commercials are back to a net long position.

Interest rate futures remain in long-term uptrends across the board.

Weekly Update – 11 August 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks saw considerable weakness during the week, followed by a strong recovery to retrace most of the week’s declines. This has left a strong hammer-like pattern on the weekly chart. It is not a hammer because the trend is wrong. There was not enough downtrend for it to be a reversal pattern, and, in terms of strict definition, the lower shadow was too long. However, the long-term trend remains up for the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.

 

The trend is also still up for the Dax, but a change of trend to down is within range and could be completed in the coming weeks if we see additional weakness. The weakest of the stock indices is still the Nikkei, which never completed a change of trend to up when the other indices did. The Nikkei, therefore, remains in a downtrend.

 

Commodities

Gold advanced another 3.82% to reach its highest level since 2013. Silver also rallied and crossed above the 1700 level for the first time in 14 months. Except for Copper, the metals remain in strong uptrends.

 

Currencies

The British Pound made a new low print since January 2017, narrowly holding to the 1.20 level. The trend is down and may continue further, but sentiment is near a bearish extreme, with only 12% bulls, and, more importantly, record commercial buying. This week’s COT data shows that commercials now have their biggest net long position in history. Commercials are nearly always right at extremes, but often early. When this market turns, the move to the upside could be explosive.

 

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures exploded higher again this week. The 30-year T-Bond made its highest print in almost three years, as the long-term uptrend remains intact. UK Long Gilts rallied to a new all-time high.

Weekly Update – 4 August 2019 – LS Trader

This past week saw the expected heightened volatility surrounding the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the market was expecting more.

Stocks

Stocks broke lower in volatile fashion this week, breaking short-term support in the process. The long-term trend remains up, but this week’s action has done some technical damage. The RSI on the S&P 500 has closed right on the 40 level, which is bull market support, so next week could be a pivotal week. A decisive move below the 40 level will indicate considerable further weakness and a range shift in the RSI to bearish.

Commodities

The metals sector saw some wild swings this week. Gold, Silver and Palladium all remain in long-term uptrends. Copper, the only one of the four metals that is in a downtrend, broke recent support to fall to its lowest level since January.

Currencies

The British Pound fell to its lowest level since January 2017. The long-term trend is still down. However, there has been some evidence of buying due to the long lower shadow on Thursday’s candle followed by a bullish engulfing candle the next day, so we may see a corrective bounce. Another factor of interest is that commercials, the smart money, registered their third-largest long position in history on the Pound, so the smart money does not perceive Brexit to be bearish.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures rallied sharply this week, breaking to the upside. We have written in recent weeks that the long-term uptrend was intact and that price structure was incomplete and that we were expecting new highs in these markets. We got them this week.

Weekly Update – 28 July 2019 – LS Trader

This week sees the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where the Fed is widely expected to cut rates. The question is, how much will they cut by and will it be enough as perceived by the market? Expect volatility around the time of the announcement on Wednesday at 7 pm BST.

Stocks

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 made new all-time highs this week.

The Dax rallied to test the high printed earlier this month but reversed sharply on Thursday with a big down day.

The Nikkei also rested resistance but also failed to breakout. Resistance was also found at the 60 level on the RSI. If both levels can be decisively broken, we could see a rally to the next level of resistance around 2250.

Commodities

Gold continues to trade in volatile fashion but remains in a long-term uptrend and above support.

Silver rallied to its highest level since June last year but is finding resistance at the 200-week MA.

Currencies

The dollar has seen strength return this week, with the Dollar Index rallying higher for six days, making a breakout on the back-adjusted continuous chart to its highest level since March 2013. This move also saw the dollar push the Euro to new lows for the current move. The British Pound also fell to a new low since April 2017.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to consolidate in a range not far below recent highs. These markets could see volatile swings this week due to the FOMC meeting. The long-term trend is up for these markets, and considerable weakness will be required before that changes.

The only market in the sector in a current active uptrend is the UK Long Gilt, which this week came close to its all-time high, printed back in August 2016.