Weekly Update – 25 October 2020 – LS Trader

The markets continue to trade mostly sideways in the run-up to the US election. However, multiple markets are within range of breakouts, and this rangebound trading is likely to resolve soon, with the odds favouring a breakout in the direction of the prevailing long-term trends.

Stocks

Stocks have consolidated for a second week, closing slightly lower. Candle bodies ae shrinking on the daily and weekly charts, which show indecision as we move into the final week ahead of the US election.

The Nasdaq 100 closed lower for the first week in five and has printed several clustered closes. As with the S&P 500, candle bodies are contracting. The long-term trend remains up.

Commodities

Volatility continues to contract in the metals markets. The long-term trend remains up. Copper broke out again to reach its highest level since July 2020. Following the strong breakout on Tuesday, with follow-through on Wednesday, the market has moved lower to restest the breakout level. Support should be seen at or near current levels if the uptrend is good.

Currencies

The past week has seen Dollar weakness across the board. Several major currencies are within range of breakouts against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures have moved lower break out of the short-term rectangle. The markets remain in the longer-term rectangle and are still in long-term uptrends, but short-term weakness may continue to push the markets lower in the near-term. This week has seen the 40-level break on the RSI, so the RSI is in the bear range.

Weekly Update – 18 October 2020 – LS Trader

The markets continue to consolidate overall, with the probabilities favouring breakouts to resume the prevailing long-term trends, which are currently up for stocks, commodities and interest rates, but down for the dollar.

The current quiet trading period seen in many markets will likely come to an end in the next couple of weeks, with the US election as a possible trigger for volatility.

Stocks

Stocks began the week with strength but fell back through to Friday. The low of the week was printed on Thursday, where buying came in, and a hammer was printed. The long-term trend remains up and a test of last week’s high and the September high remain very possible.

Commodities

The metals markets remain in long-term uptrends, but continue to consolidate. Copper is within range of a breakout this week.

The energy markets continue to coil in a narrow range and could test resistance this week. The long-term trend is up for the sector overall.

Currencies

The currency markets continue to consolidate but have seen some dollar strength in places. Overall, the long-term trend remains against the dollar, and the technical picture suggests it may only be a matter of time before the weak dollar trend resumes.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to consolidate, as they have now for months. The long-term trend remains up, and the odds favour an upside resolution to this trading range.

Weekly Update – 11 October 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks remain bullish overall. All four of the stock indices we trade at LS Trader remain in long-term uptrends and the RSI bull range. The Nikkei 225 is currently the strongest in the short-term and has cleared the highs it printed in early September. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are showing signs of strength and may continue higher to test their all-time highs posted last month.

Commodities

The metals markets have held above support and remain in long-term uptrends. This week saw Palladium breakout to a seven-month high. Copper looks set to test its local top. Gold and Silver continue to consolidate but have an upward bias.

The grains markets have continued their bullish trends overall this week, especially the Soybean markets. Soybean Meal hit a two-year high, while beans reached their highest level since June 2018. Even Bean Oil, which has been by far the weakest of the Bean complex of late has surged higher this week.

Currencies

The trend in the currency markets remains against the Dollar, with the long-term trend down for the Dollar against all of the majors. Breakouts are within range to resume major currency strength against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures are trading at or near the bottom of the sideways channel that has been in place for months. Currently, the long-term trend is still up, but the RSI has moved slightly below the 40-level on the RSI, and support is being tested. If this shelf of potential support is broken, we may see further weakness to test significant trend-defining support over the coming weeks, with a possible change of trend to down in the sector.

Weekly Update – 4 October 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 continued higher this week from the hammer printed on the weekly charts during the prior week. This resulted in the S&P 500 closing higher for the first time in five weeks.

Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain in long-term uptrends, and the RSI remains in the bull range, having continued to find support at the 40 levels.

In the short-term, the Nikkei 225 is holding up better than the other global indices and remains within the range of another upside breakout.

Commodities

Gold and Silver both had up weeks, and the long-term trend remains up for both metals.

The grains markets resumed their uptrends following a week or so of corrective weakness, as Soybean Meal and Soybeans rallied this week. Corn and Wheat also printed new six month highs.

The energy markets have moved sharply lower this week, with Natural Gas leading the way to the downside. Crude Oil looks set to test a shelf of support this week and could turn lower, with plenty of potential room to the downside.

Currencies

The currency markets continue to trade without much direction in the short-term. The strength seen in the Dollar during the prior week’s trading was mostly corrected this week as the Dollar ended the week lower. The long-term trend remains against the Dollar overall.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel as they have for months. Upside breakouts remain very much in range, but so far no markets in the sector have been able to clear resistance.

Weekly Update – 27 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 has closed down for four consecutive weeks. The Nasdaq 100 ended with an up week and printed a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, whilst the S&P 500 printed a hammer. Last week’s lows may be critical to the short-term direction of the market. If last week’s lows hold, we may see prices push back towards the recent highs. However, a break of the lows would likely lead to additional selling. The 40-level is holding on the RSI, which is bull market support, and the long-term trend remains up.

Commodities

Metals have seen additional weakness this week, but the long-term trend remains up across the sector.

The energy markets except for Natural gas remain in long-term uptrends, but continue to trade in a range with low volatility.

The grains markets have been in strong uptrends in recent weeks but saw some corrective weakness this week. The long-term trend remains up across the sector.

Currencies

The Dollar has had a good week with strength seen across the board. The Dollar Index itself has made a two month high. For now, the long-term trend remains against the Dollar.

Only the Yen remains in a current trade against the Dollar, and that trend may end this week as the Dollar corrects against the primary trend against all majors.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel but are pressing up towards the higher end of the range, with upside breakouts very much in range.

Weekly Update – 20 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks have remained week and are at interesting short-term levels. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested support in terms of price and the 40-level on the RSI, which is bull market support. So far, both markets have held up. The long-term trend remains up for stock indices.

Commodities

Copper made a new high for the move and closed on the high of the week, which is often a sign that momentum will continue on Monday.

Gold and Silver continue to consolidate in low volatility sideways triangular patterns that have a bias to potentially breakout to the upside and resume the long-term bull trend. Breakouts from such low levels of volatility tend to be sharp. We could see some swift moves if and when the breakout is successful.

Currencies

It’s been another mixed week in the currency markets. The Australian Dollar continues its recent uptrend having held above support. The Kiwi broke out to a new high for the move but was unable to progress and closed back below prior resistance, but did still manage to make a new high close since July 2019.

USD/JPY remains in a long-term downtrend. Weakness took the market down to test support at the July low. That support has held so far.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures remain in a sideways quiet channel, which has been the case for several months. The sector is about as neutral as it can get as the market moves sideways with very low volatility and an RSI hovering around the midline.

Weekly Update – 13 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks ended the week lower but remain in long-term uptrends. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both saw their respective RSIs find support at the 40 levels, keeping the bull range intact.

The Dax and the Nikkei have been stronger than their US counterparts and are within range of upside breakouts this week.

The long-term trend remains up for global stocks despite recent weakness.

Commodities

Copper remains the strongest of the metals in the short-term as Silver broke short-term support this week. Palladium has held up well and could complete a change of trend to up this week.

The energy markets are still in long-term uptrends but have broken out of their rectangle patterns to the downside. Weakness has been sufficient to put the RSI into the bear range on three markets in the sector. Further weakness will be required for a change of long-term trend to down.

Currencies

The currency markets have been mixed, but have seen sufficient dollar strength in the short-term to bring most trends against the Dollar to an end for now. However, the long-term trend remains very much against the Dollar. The Australian Dollar continues to hold up and bounced off support this week.

Interest rate futures

US interest rate futures continue to trade in what can best be described as a sideways quiet channel, in a long-term uptrend. Upside breakouts are within range for these markets. Volatility remains low.

The UK Long Gilts market has been more volatile but is also within a long-term uptrend.

Weekly Update – 5 September 2020 – LS Trader

Monday is Labour Day Holiday in the US so the US markets will be closed.

Stocks

Stocks made new all-time highs during the first half of the week but reversed sharply on Thursday and Friday to end the week down. The Dax completed a change of trend to up but was stopped out following the reversal. The long-term trend is currently up for all global stock indices that we trade at LS Trader despite this week’s sell-off.

The S&P 500 held up better than the other indices and bounced off support to keep the uptrend alive.

Commodities

Copper held up well and managed to make a new high for the current move this week. Gold and Silver continue to consolidate. Palladium ended the week higher and is in range of completing a change of trend to up.

The energy markets have seen some weakness this week and are trading towards the lower end of the recent trading range. The long-term trend is up across the sector.

Currencies

The Dollar continues to show signs of attempting to bottom. The Dollar Index printed a hammer from the lows on Tuesday and ended the week higher. The long-term trend remains against the Dollar across the board, but there was sufficient strength to bring the current trends to an end for the British Pound and Swiss Franc.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures remain rangebound having traded higher throughout the week until Friday, where they reversed lower. All interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways channel as they have since March, but the long-term trend remains up across the board.

Weekly Update – 30 August 2020 – LS Trader

Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK, but global markets will be trading as usual.

Stocks

Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 made new all-time highs again this week. The Nikkei 225 made a false breakout above its May high to reach its highest level since February, but then pulled back. The trend is now up for the Nikkei. Of the four stock indices that we trade at LS Trader, only the Dax remains in a long-term downtrend. However, that could change this week.

Commodities

Copper made its highest close since February 2019 as the rally that began at the March low continues. Gold, Silver and Palladium continue to consolidate. The latter is trading within a triangle and is nearing the point of a breakout. Currently, the long-term trend is down for Palladium, the only one of the four metals that we trade where that is the case.

Currencies

The Dollar has seen continued weakness this week as most of the majors continue to make new highs for the current move against the Dollar. The long-term trend is currently down for the Dollar against all the majors, and, the Dollar Index. The Dollar Index tested the early August low this past week and may exceed it this week.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to consolidate, but the short-term weakness is evident. A change of long-term trend to down is within range for the 30 Year T-Bond, and the UK Long Gilts. Two-month lows were printed this week in the 30 Year Bonds, and 10 Year Notes.

Weekly Update – 22 August 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 ended the week with a new all-time high close. The S&P 500 also made a new all-time high weekly close. Clearly, the trend is up for both markets.

The Dax and the Nikkei are both in long-term downtrends, but both are within range of breakouts that would complete a trend reversal to up.

Commodities

Copper rallied to reach its highest level since April last year but has pulled back since the breakout. Gold and Silver continue to chop around, but both remain in long-term uptrends. Silver remains strongest and is holding above short-term support.

The energy sector continues its recent recovery and has already seen a couple of markets in the sector complete a trend change to up, with the remaining markets testing resistance.

Currencies

The Dollar Index ended the week higher as there are signs that a bottom may be forming, at least for the short-term. Currently, the trend remains against the dollar against all of the majors.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel as volatility remains at very low levels. The long-term trend remains up across the sector. Upside breakouts are within range for all markets in the sector. Change of long-term trend to down levels are likely out of range for at least another week or so.