Weekly Update – 25 October 2020 – LS Trader

The markets continue to trade mostly sideways in the run-up to the US election. However, multiple markets are within range of breakouts, and this rangebound trading is likely to resolve soon, with the odds favouring a breakout in the direction of the prevailing long-term trends.

Stocks

Stocks have consolidated for a second week, closing slightly lower. Candle bodies ae shrinking on the daily and weekly charts, which show indecision as we move into the final week ahead of the US election.

The Nasdaq 100 closed lower for the first week in five and has printed several clustered closes. As with the S&P 500, candle bodies are contracting. The long-term trend remains up.

Commodities

Volatility continues to contract in the metals markets. The long-term trend remains up. Copper broke out again to reach its highest level since July 2020. Following the strong breakout on Tuesday, with follow-through on Wednesday, the market has moved lower to restest the breakout level. Support should be seen at or near current levels if the uptrend is good.

Currencies

The past week has seen Dollar weakness across the board. Several major currencies are within range of breakouts against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures have moved lower break out of the short-term rectangle. The markets remain in the longer-term rectangle and are still in long-term uptrends, but short-term weakness may continue to push the markets lower in the near-term. This week has seen the 40-level break on the RSI, so the RSI is in the bear range.

Weekly Update – 18 October 2020 – LS Trader

The markets continue to consolidate overall, with the probabilities favouring breakouts to resume the prevailing long-term trends, which are currently up for stocks, commodities and interest rates, but down for the dollar.

The current quiet trading period seen in many markets will likely come to an end in the next couple of weeks, with the US election as a possible trigger for volatility.

Stocks

Stocks began the week with strength but fell back through to Friday. The low of the week was printed on Thursday, where buying came in, and a hammer was printed. The long-term trend remains up and a test of last week’s high and the September high remain very possible.

Commodities

The metals markets remain in long-term uptrends, but continue to consolidate. Copper is within range of a breakout this week.

The energy markets continue to coil in a narrow range and could test resistance this week. The long-term trend is up for the sector overall.

Currencies

The currency markets continue to consolidate but have seen some dollar strength in places. Overall, the long-term trend remains against the dollar, and the technical picture suggests it may only be a matter of time before the weak dollar trend resumes.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to consolidate, as they have now for months. The long-term trend remains up, and the odds favour an upside resolution to this trading range.

Weekly Update – 11 October 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks remain bullish overall. All four of the stock indices we trade at LS Trader remain in long-term uptrends and the RSI bull range. The Nikkei 225 is currently the strongest in the short-term and has cleared the highs it printed in early September. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are showing signs of strength and may continue higher to test their all-time highs posted last month.

Commodities

The metals markets have held above support and remain in long-term uptrends. This week saw Palladium breakout to a seven-month high. Copper looks set to test its local top. Gold and Silver continue to consolidate but have an upward bias.

The grains markets have continued their bullish trends overall this week, especially the Soybean markets. Soybean Meal hit a two-year high, while beans reached their highest level since June 2018. Even Bean Oil, which has been by far the weakest of the Bean complex of late has surged higher this week.

Currencies

The trend in the currency markets remains against the Dollar, with the long-term trend down for the Dollar against all of the majors. Breakouts are within range to resume major currency strength against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures are trading at or near the bottom of the sideways channel that has been in place for months. Currently, the long-term trend is still up, but the RSI has moved slightly below the 40-level on the RSI, and support is being tested. If this shelf of potential support is broken, we may see further weakness to test significant trend-defining support over the coming weeks, with a possible change of trend to down in the sector.

Weekly Update – 4 October 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 continued higher this week from the hammer printed on the weekly charts during the prior week. This resulted in the S&P 500 closing higher for the first time in five weeks.

Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain in long-term uptrends, and the RSI remains in the bull range, having continued to find support at the 40 levels.

In the short-term, the Nikkei 225 is holding up better than the other global indices and remains within the range of another upside breakout.

Commodities

Gold and Silver both had up weeks, and the long-term trend remains up for both metals.

The grains markets resumed their uptrends following a week or so of corrective weakness, as Soybean Meal and Soybeans rallied this week. Corn and Wheat also printed new six month highs.

The energy markets have moved sharply lower this week, with Natural Gas leading the way to the downside. Crude Oil looks set to test a shelf of support this week and could turn lower, with plenty of potential room to the downside.

Currencies

The currency markets continue to trade without much direction in the short-term. The strength seen in the Dollar during the prior week’s trading was mostly corrected this week as the Dollar ended the week lower. The long-term trend remains against the Dollar overall.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel as they have for months. Upside breakouts remain very much in range, but so far no markets in the sector have been able to clear resistance.