Weekly Update – 27 October 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

From last week: “However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have yet to breakout and remain below resistance. Breakouts are within range for both.” The S&P 500 remains just a fraction below key resistance in price and RSI. The RSI is at the 60 level on the daily and weekly charts.

There is a massive inverted head and shoulders continuation pattern forming on the S&P 500, which if completed, has extremely bullish implications, with price projections over 3600. It’s possible that we could see new all-time highs in both US indexes this week.

The Dax and the Nikkei have both rallied to new highs for the current move.

Commodities

The metals had a decent week overall. Palladium printed new all-time highs once again. Both Gold and Silver have shown renewed signs of strength this week, but both had ugly one-day candles on Friday.

Currencies

The dollar declined to new lows for the current move on Monday but then reversed and advanced for the rest of the week. The long-term trend continues to favour the Dollar Index. The dollar is also in an uptrend against all of the majors except the British Pound, Japanese Yen and the Canadian dollar. We may see the dollar breakout against the Yen this week, completing a change of long-term trend.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to decline. For now, the long-term trend remains up, but prices are not back to the lower end of the trading range with a change of trend to down potentially coming into range in the coming weeks if weakness persists.

Weekly Update – 20 October 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

From last week: “However, a change of long-term trend to up and a breakout to new highs is within range for the Dax.” The Dax completed the expected breakout and change of trend. All four stock indices that we trade at LS Trader are now in long-term uptrends. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have yet to breakout and remain below resistance. Breakouts are within range for both.

It is unusual in recent times for the US markets to lag the Dax and Nikkei, but that is what we currently see.

Commodities

Palladium remains the strongest of the metals and the entire commodity space. New all-time highs were printed once again this week.

Signs of life continue to appear in the grains sector. Oats rallied to its highest level in 4 months. Soybean Oil completed a breakout to reach its highest level since February. Wheat reached its highest level since June. Soybeans turned lower from resistance but is within range of a breakout this week.

Currencies

From last week: “The big move came from the British Pound. In recent weeks we have written about the huge net long position on the COT report of commercial traders. This week the Pound rallied 2.47%, with nearly all of that gain coming on Thursday and Friday.” The Pound extended gains this week with an additional 2.75% rally and completed a change of long-term trend to up in the process. The Pound has now rallied more than 800 pips in the last seven trading days to reach its highest level since May.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures were lower again this week but not by much. The RSI is bouncing along the 40 bull market support level on the RSI, and the long-term trend remains up.

Weekly Update – 13 October 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks had a mixed week but ended the week higher. The long-term trend remains up with new all-time highs within range.

The Nikkei 225 completed a trend change to up this week, leaving the Dax as the only one of the four indices we trade in a long-term downtrend. However, a change of long-term trend to up and a breakout to new highs is within range for the Dax.

Commodities

Palladium rallied to hit new all-time highs again this week. Palladium, along with Gold and Silver remain in long-term uptrends. Copper, the weakest of the four, is still in a long-term downtrend.

Currencies

The Dollar has seen weakness this week. The Dollar Index broke support, and the Euro rallied above resistance.

The big move came from the British Pound. In recent weeks we have written about the huge net long position on the COT report of commercial traders. This week the Pound rallied 2.47%, with nearly all of that gain coming on Thursday and Friday.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures were unable to continue the rally from the prior week as resistance held firm. Four out of five days this week showed heavy selling. This has taken the RSI back to testing bull market support at the 40 level. The long-term trend remains up, but further short-term weakness may be seen and possibly a test of the September lows.

Weekly Update – 6 October 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 ended the week lower for the third straight week. However, the lows were sharply rejected, and a huge buying tail is evident on the weekly charts. The long-term trend remains up, with new highs within range. Similar price action is evident on the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225, with the Dax being the weakest of the four indices.

Commodities

Gold dropped below the key level last week, completing a potential head and shoulders top, but reversed sharply, closing back above the neckline. A further rally above the right shoulder would give a failed pattern and suggest new highs may follow. The long-term trend remains up.

Currencies

From last week: “There are some possible bullish factors for the Euro, which may lead to a bounce in addition to sentiment, and these are momentum divergence between price and RSI, and heightened volatility.” The Euro dropped to new lows on Tuesday but then put in a sharp rally through the rest of the week. The Dollar Index made the inverse move. However, the long-term trend continues to favour the dollar.

Interest rate futures

From last week: “The RSI is now back to testing the 60 level having held at bull market support at the 40 level at the September the 13th lows. A decisive move above 60 on the RSI would suggest further strength towards recent highs.”

Interest rate futures saw the RSI exceed the 60 level and price rally to test the recent highs as expected. Friday saw a spinning top indecision candle print on the 5-year note following a test almost to the tick of the recent high. A successful breakout could be seen this week.