Weekly Update – 29 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks declined this week for the second consecutive week. It’s interesting to note that resistance held in price and at the 60 level on the RSI, which keeps the RSI in the bear range even though the long-term price trend is up.

Commodities

Gold tested support on Friday and printed a bullish hammer pattern. The long-term trend remains up, but the support zone around 1488 seems key to the short-term price action.

Palladium was, once again, the strongest of the metals, as it rallied to new all-time highs, and made all all-time high close.

The energy markets remain in the middle of the range, with the long-term trend down for all markets except for Natural Gas.

Currencies

It’s been a bullish week for the Dollar, as the Dollar Index made a new high close for the current move. Naturally, this coincided with the Euro making a new low. Sentiment remains bullish for the Dollar and bearish for the Euro. There are some possible bullish factors for the Euro, which may lead to a bounce in addition to sentiment, and these are momentum divergence between price and RSI, and heightened volatility.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures rallied for a second straight week, with the long-term trend still up. A test of the recent highs cannot be ruled out in the coming weeks.

The RSI is now back to testing the 60 level having held at bull market support at the 40 level at the September the 13th lows. A decisive move above 60 on the RSI would suggest further strength towards recent highs.

Weekly Update – 22 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks 

Stocks had a mixed week after failing to take out the prior week’s highs and rally to new all-time highs. The long-term trend for US stocks remains up, and a breakout to new all-time highs is likely in the coming weeks.

The Nikkei and the Dax, currently still in long-term downtrends, are within range of upside breakouts and a change of trend to up.

Commodities

The energy sector saw massive moves this week after gapping sharply higher on Monday on geopolitical events. The long-term trend for energies was and still is down, except for Natural Gas. However, the size of last week’s moves has taken the markets to within range of a change of trend to up.

Palladium was, once again, the strongest of the metals, as it rallied to new all-time highs.

Currencies

The Dollar had a better week as it rallied against most of the majors, keeping the long-term Dollar bull trend intact. The Euro had rallied against the Dollar sufficiently to test resistance, but resistance held, and the market turned lower. 

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures put in a robust five-day rally this week to correct some of the recent declines. The long-term trend remains up for the sector, and new highs cannot be ruled out. It will take significant further decline for a change of trend to down to come within range, and that prospect looks to be months away at present.

Weekly Update – 15 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks rolled to the December contract during another bullish week. New all-time highs could be seen this week. The S&P 500 came close to an all-time high on Friday but printed a bearish shooting star pattern as resistance held firm. This has the market at a critical resistance level. The RSI has also closed right on the 60 level, so price action next week could be decisive. Price action in the Nasdaq 100 was very similar. The long-term trend remains up for US stocks.

The Dax and Nikkei are both within range of upside breakouts and changes of long-term trend to up.

Commodities

The metals markets saw mixed trading. Silver got crushed, and Gold also declined, with both markets breaking support and bringing an end to the uptrend for now. Palladium rallied to print new all-time highs. Copper continued its recovery rally, making its highest print since July.

Currencies

We’ve written in recent weeks about the bullish commercial position in the British Pound and the importance of the $1.20 level. The $1.20 level did provide support, and a strong rally has followed. The Pound is now at its highest level since July, and commercials remain near a record net long position.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures saw a second week of heavy selling with support being broken. The uptrend is over, at least for now. Weakness has been so extreme in the past two weeks that the RSI has broken the 40 level and is now in the bear range. Considerable further weakness will be required for a long-term trend change to down, and the trend remains up.

Weekly Update – 8 September 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks had another bullish week. The long-term uptrend remains up for US stocks, and we could see new all-time highs in both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 this week.

This week sees both stock indices and currencies roll to the December contract.

 

Commodities

Silver rallied to a new high for the current move but then put in a sharp reversal, printing a shooting star on the weekly chart. The trend remains up, and the market is above support. The chart structure looks incomplete, so new highs are expected once this correction ends. Gold has also seen weakness on Thursday and Friday, and also remains above support.

 

Currencies

From last week: “The Pound ended the week lower by 0.99%. There will likely be further Brexit shenanigans this week. The long-term trend remains down, but commercials remain very close to an all-time net long position. Sentiment remains negative, with only 17% reporting as bullish. $1.20 remains a crucial level.” The Pound dipped below the $1.20 level but then reversed sharply, bringing the downtrend to an end for now.

The dollar has had a mixed week, ending lower against most of the majors.

 

Interest rate futures

The long-term trend remains up for interest rate futures, but the sector has seen some weakness this week. However, the markets all remain above support, and Friday saw a bullish hammer pattern printed, indicting that the lows are being rejected.

Weekly Update – 1 September 2019 – LS Trader

Monday is Labour Day in the US, so US markets will be closed.

Stocks

Stocks had a bullish week. US stocks reversed from above key support and remain in long-term uptrends.

The Nikkei rallied sufficiently to break resistance and bring the downtrend to an end for now. Both the Nikkei and Dax remain in long-term.

Commodities

Silver exploded higher this week, rallying above 1800 to make its highest print since November 2011. Gold made its highest print since April 2013. Both metals came off their highs for the week by Friday’s close, but the trend remains up.

Currencies

The Pound ended the week lower by 0.99%. There will likely be further Brexit shenanigans this week. The long-term trend remains down, but commercials remain very close to an all-time net long position. Sentiment remains negative, with only 17% reporting as bullish. $1.20 remains a crucial level.

The Dollar had a strong week, with the Dollar Index rallying by 1.36% to end the week at its highest level since May 2017. This dollar rally pushed the Euro to its lowest level also since May 2017. Sentiment on the Euro has fallen to only 9% bulls, but, unlike the Pound, there is barely any commercial buying to be seen.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures rallied again this week to new highs for the current move. UK Long Gilts recovered from the breach of support during the prior week to hit new all-time highs and resume the uptrend. All five markets that we trade in the interest rate futures sector are bullish and remain in long-term uptrends.