Weekly Update – 28 April 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

From last week: “This suggests that there is still potentially further to go in this rally.” Stocks rallied again with the Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs. The S&P 500 fell just short of new all-time highs basis the back-adjusted continuous contract but may post new highs this week. The Dax has rallied to its highest level since September last year.

Also from last week: “As before, only the Nikkei remains in a long-term downtrend of the four stock indices we trade at LS Trader and could complete a trend change this week.” The Nikkei tested resistance this past week but stands a good chance of a breakout this week ahead.

Commodities

The energy markets made new highs this week but then reversed sharply, with a big down day on Friday breaking short-term support. That brings an end to the uptrend, at least for the short-term, but the long-term trend remains up. RBOB Gasoline, which was the first to breakout, making its move 1-2 weeks before the other markets in the sector, and therefore being the leader, remains above support with the trend intact.

Currencies

The Dollar Index rallied to new highs for the current move and also advanced against most of the majors, pushing the Euro to a new low for the year. The EUR/USD effect remains intact, with January’s high well above current levels, suggesting that was the high of the year.

Interest rate futures

From last week: “It’s possible that a short-term low may have been printed on Thursday as the RSI bounced off the 40 level, keeping these markets in the bull range. In addition, price action saw a 3-day morning star bullish reversal printed. The trend remains up.” Price action this week suggests that what we wrote last week may be correct and that the uptrend is underway again

Weekly Update – 20 April 2019 – LS Trader

Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK, but the US markets will be open as usual.

## Stocks
Stock indices hit new highs for the current move. The RSI on a weekly level has cleared the 60 level on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and is testing it on the Dax. This suggests that there is still potentially further to go in this rally. As before, only the Nikkei remains in a long-term downtrend of the four stock indices we trade at LS Trader and could complete a trend change this week.

## Commodities
From last week: “Crude broke through resistance as expected, completing a change of long-term trend to up. Both Brent Crude and Heating Oil are within range of similar tests and may also breakout and complete long-term trend changes.”

Both Brent Crude and Heating Oil made breakouts and completed the trend change to up. Natural Gas, the only energy market in a downtrend, broke to the downside.

Also from last week: “Gold and Silver continue to show weakness. There is a potential head and shoulders top formation in Gold, and a break of the neckline may lead to continued weakness towards 1222, very near to trend-defining support.” Gold fell through the neckline and may now head lower towards 1222, but for now, the long-term trend remains up.

## Currencies
From last week: “Across the sector, there is an environment of collapsing volatility, and very low volatility levels are evident in several majors, which usually precedes a directional move.” The Dollar Index rallied sharply on Thursday to exceed the March peak and move to its highest level of the current move. The Euro remained below support and moved sharply lower on Thursday, moving inversely to the Dollar Index. The Dollar also broke to the upside against the Swiss franc.

## Interest rate futures
From last week: “The long-term trend remains up across the sector, but further short-term weakness looks likely before the trend reverses back to the upside.” It’s possible that a short-term low may have been printed on Thursday as the RSI bounced off the 40 level, keeping these markets in the bull range. In addition, price action saw a 3-day morning star bullish reversal printed. The trend remains up.

Weekly Update – 14 April 2019 – LS Trader

This week will be a shortened trading week as Friday is Good Friday so US and UK markets will be closed.

Stocks

The stock markets continue to rally higher towards the all-time highs printed last year.

The Nikkei 225, which has been the laggard of the four global stock indices that we trade at LS Trader could rally sufficiently to complete a change of long-term trend to up. This would put all four indices in a long-term uptrend and confirm the uptrend.

Commodities

From last week: “The Crude markets are likely to test resistance in the coming days and could also complete a change of trend. Volatility is expanding nicely and is currently in the sweet spot for a trend move.”

Crude broke through resistance as expected, completing a change of long-term trend to up. Both Brent Crude and Heating Oil are within range of similar tests and may also breakout and complete long-term trend changes.

Gold and Silver continue to show weakness. There is a potential head and shoulders top formation in Gold, and a break of the neckline may lead to continued weakness towards 1222, very near to trend-defining support.

Currencies

The dollar has seen some weakness this week but not enough to bring the trend against the Euro to an end. The dollar remains in proximity of breakouts against several of the major currency markets. Across the sector, there is an environment of collapsing volatility, and very low volatility levels are evident in several majors, which usually precedes a directional move.

Interest rate futures

From last week: “This makes last week’s lows in the sector a key support area. For now, the long-term trend remains up.” The key lows from the prior week were broken, bringing the uptrend to an end for now. The long-term trend remains up across the sector, but further short-term weakness looks likely before the trend reverses back to the upside.

Weekly Update – 7 April 2019 – LS Trader

Stocks

The recent rally in stocks continued this week, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 may rally further to test the all-time highs printed last year.

The Dax rallied sufficiently to complete a change of trend to up, leaving the Nikkei as the only stock index that we trade in a long-term downtrend.

Commodities

RBOB Gasoline is the first market in the energy complex to complete a change of trend reversal and is now back in a long-term uptrend. The Crude markets are likely to test resistance in the coming days and could also complete a change of trend. Volatility is expanding nicely and is currently in the sweet spot for a trend move.

The grains markets remain in a long-term bear market. None of the markets is likely to complete a change of trend soon, and unless something changes and we get a catalyst, it’s expected to be at least a few weeks before that changes.

Currencies

From last week: “Strength looks to be returning to the dollar, at least in the short-term The Dollar Index has retraced most of its decline since the March 7th high and may breakout this week.” The Dollar Index is testing resistance once again, and may breakout to the upside this week.

Also from last week: “Similarly, the Euro, a near perfect inversion of the Dollar Index, may this week break to the downside and new lows for the year.” The Euro did break to new lows for the year as expected, but as yet without follow-through. A decisive upside breakout in the Dollar Index would confirm Euro weakness.

The British Pound does not know which way to turn and is back to almost the middle of the trading range that has been in place since last summer.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures have seen continued weakness this past week and tested support on Friday. Support held and buying returned, leaving a demand tail on the daily chart. This makes last week’s lows in the sector a key support area. For now, the long-term trend remains up.