Weekly Update – 27 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 has closed down for four consecutive weeks. The Nasdaq 100 ended with an up week and printed a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, whilst the S&P 500 printed a hammer. Last week’s lows may be critical to the short-term direction of the market. If last week’s lows hold, we may see prices push back towards the recent highs. However, a break of the lows would likely lead to additional selling. The 40-level is holding on the RSI, which is bull market support, and the long-term trend remains up.

Commodities

Metals have seen additional weakness this week, but the long-term trend remains up across the sector.

The energy markets except for Natural gas remain in long-term uptrends, but continue to trade in a range with low volatility.

The grains markets have been in strong uptrends in recent weeks but saw some corrective weakness this week. The long-term trend remains up across the sector.

Currencies

The Dollar has had a good week with strength seen across the board. The Dollar Index itself has made a two month high. For now, the long-term trend remains against the Dollar.

Only the Yen remains in a current trade against the Dollar, and that trend may end this week as the Dollar corrects against the primary trend against all majors.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel but are pressing up towards the higher end of the range, with upside breakouts very much in range.

Weekly Update – 20 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks have remained week and are at interesting short-term levels. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested support in terms of price and the 40-level on the RSI, which is bull market support. So far, both markets have held up. The long-term trend remains up for stock indices.

Commodities

Copper made a new high for the move and closed on the high of the week, which is often a sign that momentum will continue on Monday.

Gold and Silver continue to consolidate in low volatility sideways triangular patterns that have a bias to potentially breakout to the upside and resume the long-term bull trend. Breakouts from such low levels of volatility tend to be sharp. We could see some swift moves if and when the breakout is successful.

Currencies

It’s been another mixed week in the currency markets. The Australian Dollar continues its recent uptrend having held above support. The Kiwi broke out to a new high for the move but was unable to progress and closed back below prior resistance, but did still manage to make a new high close since July 2019.

USD/JPY remains in a long-term downtrend. Weakness took the market down to test support at the July low. That support has held so far.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures remain in a sideways quiet channel, which has been the case for several months. The sector is about as neutral as it can get as the market moves sideways with very low volatility and an RSI hovering around the midline.

Weekly Update – 13 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks ended the week lower but remain in long-term uptrends. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both saw their respective RSIs find support at the 40 levels, keeping the bull range intact.

The Dax and the Nikkei have been stronger than their US counterparts and are within range of upside breakouts this week.

The long-term trend remains up for global stocks despite recent weakness.

Commodities

Copper remains the strongest of the metals in the short-term as Silver broke short-term support this week. Palladium has held up well and could complete a change of trend to up this week.

The energy markets are still in long-term uptrends but have broken out of their rectangle patterns to the downside. Weakness has been sufficient to put the RSI into the bear range on three markets in the sector. Further weakness will be required for a change of long-term trend to down.

Currencies

The currency markets have been mixed, but have seen sufficient dollar strength in the short-term to bring most trends against the Dollar to an end for now. However, the long-term trend remains very much against the Dollar. The Australian Dollar continues to hold up and bounced off support this week.

Interest rate futures

US interest rate futures continue to trade in what can best be described as a sideways quiet channel, in a long-term uptrend. Upside breakouts are within range for these markets. Volatility remains low.

The UK Long Gilts market has been more volatile but is also within a long-term uptrend.

Weekly Update – 5 September 2020 – LS Trader

Monday is Labour Day Holiday in the US so the US markets will be closed.

Stocks

Stocks made new all-time highs during the first half of the week but reversed sharply on Thursday and Friday to end the week down. The Dax completed a change of trend to up but was stopped out following the reversal. The long-term trend is currently up for all global stock indices that we trade at LS Trader despite this week’s sell-off.

The S&P 500 held up better than the other indices and bounced off support to keep the uptrend alive.

Commodities

Copper held up well and managed to make a new high for the current move this week. Gold and Silver continue to consolidate. Palladium ended the week higher and is in range of completing a change of trend to up.

The energy markets have seen some weakness this week and are trading towards the lower end of the recent trading range. The long-term trend is up across the sector.

Currencies

The Dollar continues to show signs of attempting to bottom. The Dollar Index printed a hammer from the lows on Tuesday and ended the week higher. The long-term trend remains against the Dollar across the board, but there was sufficient strength to bring the current trends to an end for the British Pound and Swiss Franc.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures remain rangebound having traded higher throughout the week until Friday, where they reversed lower. All interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways channel as they have since March, but the long-term trend remains up across the board.

Weekly Update – 30 August 2020 – LS Trader

Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK, but global markets will be trading as usual.

Stocks

Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 made new all-time highs again this week. The Nikkei 225 made a false breakout above its May high to reach its highest level since February, but then pulled back. The trend is now up for the Nikkei. Of the four stock indices that we trade at LS Trader, only the Dax remains in a long-term downtrend. However, that could change this week.

Commodities

Copper made its highest close since February 2019 as the rally that began at the March low continues. Gold, Silver and Palladium continue to consolidate. The latter is trading within a triangle and is nearing the point of a breakout. Currently, the long-term trend is down for Palladium, the only one of the four metals that we trade where that is the case.

Currencies

The Dollar has seen continued weakness this week as most of the majors continue to make new highs for the current move against the Dollar. The long-term trend is currently down for the Dollar against all the majors, and, the Dollar Index. The Dollar Index tested the early August low this past week and may exceed it this week.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to consolidate, but the short-term weakness is evident. A change of long-term trend to down is within range for the 30 Year T-Bond, and the UK Long Gilts. Two-month lows were printed this week in the 30 Year Bonds, and 10 Year Notes.

Weekly Update – 22 August 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 ended the week with a new all-time high close. The S&P 500 also made a new all-time high weekly close. Clearly, the trend is up for both markets.

The Dax and the Nikkei are both in long-term downtrends, but both are within range of breakouts that would complete a trend reversal to up.

Commodities

Copper rallied to reach its highest level since April last year but has pulled back since the breakout. Gold and Silver continue to chop around, but both remain in long-term uptrends. Silver remains strongest and is holding above short-term support.

The energy sector continues its recent recovery and has already seen a couple of markets in the sector complete a trend change to up, with the remaining markets testing resistance.

Currencies

The Dollar Index ended the week higher as there are signs that a bottom may be forming, at least for the short-term. Currently, the trend remains against the dollar against all of the majors.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel as volatility remains at very low levels. The long-term trend remains up across the sector. Upside breakouts are within range for all markets in the sector. Change of long-term trend to down levels are likely out of range for at least another week or so.

Weekly Update – 15 August 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 began the week with weakness but bounced off support at fair value and came back to test the all-time high printed the prior week. The trend remains up.

The S&P 500 completed its recovery from the February/March crash and recorded a new all-time high this week. The trend remains up for the US stock indices but is still down for the Dax and the Nikkei 225.

Commodities

Gold and Silver both corrected sharply this week. Gold’s reversal was sufficient to break fair value and support and bring the current trend to an end, for now. Silver held up better and remains above support.

Currencies

The Dollar has had a mixed week again, gaining against some of the majors and falling against others. The Dollar Index itself ended the week lower and may test the recent lows again this week.

The British Pound is within range of a breakout and change of long-term trend to up against the Dollar.

The Euro found support this week against the Dollar and has pushed back up towards the local top, which may be tested this week. The correction has burned off some of the volatility excess, but momentum remains strong. The RSI fell to and then bounced from the 60 level, which is normally the sign of a strong trend.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures moved lower this week, and the uptrend is likely over for now. Volatility has expanded as the markets moved to the downside. The long-term trend remains up, and these markets remain within the sideways range that has contained the majority of trade since March.

Weekly Update – 9 August 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

From last week on the Nasdaq 100, “The market continued its rally from the spring pattern printed during the prior week but has not yet completed the recovery to print a new all-time high. We may see that this week.” The Nasdaq 100 did complete the recovery and broke out to new all-time highs once again. The S&P 500 also completed a breakout and change of long-term trend back to up but remains below its all-time high.

Commodities

Gold and Silver have both continued their sharp rise this week, until Friday, where both markets experienced sharp reversals. The trend remains up for both, but as we have written in recent weeks, volatility is extremely elevated and likely at unsustainable levels short-term. The trend is up and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future, but a correction back to fair value is probable.

Currencies

The Dollar has had a mixed week. The rally that began with a bullish engulfing pattern on the prior Friday fizzled out quickly, and the market came back down to test that previous week’s low. Friday again saw a bullish candle, so the index is trying to bottom. For now, the trend remains against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures made new highs for the current move but ended the week slightly lower. They continue to trade in a shallow volatility environment. The trend remains up.

Weekly Update – 2 August 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 ended July with an all-time high close but remains below its all-time high posted back in February.

From last week on the Nasdaq 100 “Friday did see some buying come in to close the market off the lows with a spring. The trend remains up.” The market continued its rally from the spring pattern printed during the prior week but has not yet completed the recovery to print a new all-time high. We may see that this week.

Commodities

From last week: “The metals markets have seen some big moves, with Gold and Silver making multi-year highs. Silver looks vulnerable to a correction due to reaching a volatility extreme this week.”

Silver began the week with strength to reach an even higher volatility extreme than was seen the prior week, followed by a large long-legged doji-style candle on Tuesday. The market has since consolidated within Tuesday’s wide range.

Gold crossed the $2000 level for the first time in history and made a new all-time high close. However, price closed $20 off the high of the day. As with Silver, Gold is at elevated volatility levels.

Currencies

From last week “The long-term trend is now down for the dollar against all majors except the British Pound.”

The Dollar has seen continued weakness across the board but did print a bullish engulfing pattern on Friday from a position of elevated volatility. We may see some corrective rally from here, but the trend remains down.

Interest rate futures

Also from last week “Interest rates futures continue to grind gradually higher in a very low volatility environment, with a slight upward bias…However, the price action is far from compelling.” Interest rate futures have made the long-anticipated breakout and continue to grind very slowly higher. The trend remains up across the board.

Weekly Update – 25 July 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 did not make a new all-time high this week and sold-off from Tuesday, violating the trendline and short-term support. Friday did see some buying come in to close the market off the lows with a sping. The trend remains up.

Commodities

The metals markets have seen some big moves, with Gold and Silver making multi-year highs. Silver looks vulnerable to a correction due to reaching a volatility extreme this week.

From last week: “Lumber was the big mover of the week, closing the week with a 10.33% gain. Volatility has reached its highest level in almost 18 months so we may be due a correction back to fair value.” Lumber opened the week higher but then reversed from the volatility extreme mentioned last week and pulled back to value. Buying came in from Thursday’s low. The market remains extended and will likely move sideways for a bit from here. The trend remains up.

Currencies

The currency markets have started to move following weakness from the dollar. The Dollar Index itself completed a change of trend to down, while EUR/USD completed a change of trend to up. The long-term trend is now down for the dollar against all majors except the British Pound.

Interest rate futures

Interest rates futures continue to grind gradually higher in a very low volatility environment, with a slight upward bias. The eventual breakout from this low volatility range should yield a decent move, with the bias currently to the upside in the direction of the primary trend. However, the price action is far from compelling.