Weekly Update – 15 November 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

From last week: “Stocks appear to have put in a short-term bottom on the 30th October and have rallied since. This week has seen both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rally to test the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle. If the breakout is successful, we may see a test of the all-time highs.”

The S&P 500 did make a successful breakout and printed new all-time highs on Monday, but ended up with an ugly candle. However, the weakness of that candle came back to re-test the symmetrical triangle, and that level held, and the market made a new all-time closing high on Friday.

The Nasdaq 100 made a test of all-time highs also on Monday but was unable to breakthrough. However, a breakout is within range. The Nikkei reached its highest level since January 1992. Stocks remain bullish and in long-term uptrends.

Commodities

The metals and energy markets have seen some volatile trading this week, but both sectors remain mostly rangebound. The long-term trend is still up for metals and remains down for energies.

Grains, especially the Soybean markets, remain bullish, having printed new highs for the current move once again.

Currencies

The currency markets have seen mixed trading this week, with the long-term trend against the dollar across the board.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures completed a change of trend to down, but have since reverted back to within the prior range. The trading range had gone on for so long and been so narrow, that it would not require much in the way of strength to turn the trend back to bullish.

Weekly Update – 8 November 2020 – LS Trader

The long-term trend picture has not changed despite the trading activity this week. The long-term trends are up for stocks, metals, interest rates, and grains. The long-term trend remains down for the Dollar and energies.

Stocks

From last week: “The long-term trend remains up for global markets. US markets remain above medium-term support, and until that breaks, bearishness is premature.”

Stocks appear to have put in a short-term bottom on the 30th October and have rallied since. This week has seen both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rally to test the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle. If the breakout is successful, we may see a test of the all-time highs.

Commodities

The metals markets could be on the move and may be set to test their recent highs. The long-term trend remains up across the sector.

The energy markets recovered sharply following their decline to their lowest levels since May. This week’s rally was not able to change the long-term trend to up, so the trend remains down.

Currencies

Dollar weakness resumed this week as the Dollar moved lower across the board. The long-term trend remains against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures fell to a new low for the current move on Wednesday but then reversed sharply, printing a multi-bar key reversal day. This keeps the long-term uptrend intact for now.

Weekly Update – 1 November 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks moved lower this week which included a sharp down day on Wednesday. Despite this week’s selling and all the noise about increased volatility ahead of the US election this coming Tuesday, the downswing that began on the 13th October is comparable to the swing down from the all-time high that started on the 3rd September. The long-term trend remains up for global markets. US markets remain above medium-term support, and until that breaks, bearishness is premature.

The Dax has been the weakest index of late and could complete a change of trend to down early this week. The FTSE, which is not a market that we trade at LS Trader, but reflects European weakness, never by our proprietary measures completed a change of trend to up when the others did back in the summer and is still in a downtrend. Friday’s low was the lowest print since April.

Commodities

The energy markets completed a change of long-term trend to down this week. The metals remain in long-term uptrends but are mostly consolidating in a corrective range.

Currencies

Some Dollar strength has been seen this week, which is counter to the long-term Dollar downtrend. This has us currently flat in the currency markets as we wait for the markets to show direction. It will take significant Dollar strength for most majors to complete a change of long-term trend.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures remain in long-term uptrends but continue to trade mostly sideways, but towards the lower end of the range that has been in place for many months.

Weekly Update – 25 October 2020 – LS Trader

The markets continue to trade mostly sideways in the run-up to the US election. However, multiple markets are within range of breakouts, and this rangebound trading is likely to resolve soon, with the odds favouring a breakout in the direction of the prevailing long-term trends.

Stocks

Stocks have consolidated for a second week, closing slightly lower. Candle bodies ae shrinking on the daily and weekly charts, which show indecision as we move into the final week ahead of the US election.

The Nasdaq 100 closed lower for the first week in five and has printed several clustered closes. As with the S&P 500, candle bodies are contracting. The long-term trend remains up.

Commodities

Volatility continues to contract in the metals markets. The long-term trend remains up. Copper broke out again to reach its highest level since July 2020. Following the strong breakout on Tuesday, with follow-through on Wednesday, the market has moved lower to restest the breakout level. Support should be seen at or near current levels if the uptrend is good.

Currencies

The past week has seen Dollar weakness across the board. Several major currencies are within range of breakouts against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures have moved lower break out of the short-term rectangle. The markets remain in the longer-term rectangle and are still in long-term uptrends, but short-term weakness may continue to push the markets lower in the near-term. This week has seen the 40-level break on the RSI, so the RSI is in the bear range.

Weekly Update – 18 October 2020 – LS Trader

The markets continue to consolidate overall, with the probabilities favouring breakouts to resume the prevailing long-term trends, which are currently up for stocks, commodities and interest rates, but down for the dollar.

The current quiet trading period seen in many markets will likely come to an end in the next couple of weeks, with the US election as a possible trigger for volatility.

Stocks

Stocks began the week with strength but fell back through to Friday. The low of the week was printed on Thursday, where buying came in, and a hammer was printed. The long-term trend remains up and a test of last week’s high and the September high remain very possible.

Commodities

The metals markets remain in long-term uptrends, but continue to consolidate. Copper is within range of a breakout this week.

The energy markets continue to coil in a narrow range and could test resistance this week. The long-term trend is up for the sector overall.

Currencies

The currency markets continue to consolidate but have seen some dollar strength in places. Overall, the long-term trend remains against the dollar, and the technical picture suggests it may only be a matter of time before the weak dollar trend resumes.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to consolidate, as they have now for months. The long-term trend remains up, and the odds favour an upside resolution to this trading range.

Weekly Update – 11 October 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks remain bullish overall. All four of the stock indices we trade at LS Trader remain in long-term uptrends and the RSI bull range. The Nikkei 225 is currently the strongest in the short-term and has cleared the highs it printed in early September. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are showing signs of strength and may continue higher to test their all-time highs posted last month.

Commodities

The metals markets have held above support and remain in long-term uptrends. This week saw Palladium breakout to a seven-month high. Copper looks set to test its local top. Gold and Silver continue to consolidate but have an upward bias.

The grains markets have continued their bullish trends overall this week, especially the Soybean markets. Soybean Meal hit a two-year high, while beans reached their highest level since June 2018. Even Bean Oil, which has been by far the weakest of the Bean complex of late has surged higher this week.

Currencies

The trend in the currency markets remains against the Dollar, with the long-term trend down for the Dollar against all of the majors. Breakouts are within range to resume major currency strength against the Dollar.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures are trading at or near the bottom of the sideways channel that has been in place for months. Currently, the long-term trend is still up, but the RSI has moved slightly below the 40-level on the RSI, and support is being tested. If this shelf of potential support is broken, we may see further weakness to test significant trend-defining support over the coming weeks, with a possible change of trend to down in the sector.

Weekly Update – 4 October 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 continued higher this week from the hammer printed on the weekly charts during the prior week. This resulted in the S&P 500 closing higher for the first time in five weeks.

Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain in long-term uptrends, and the RSI remains in the bull range, having continued to find support at the 40 levels.

In the short-term, the Nikkei 225 is holding up better than the other global indices and remains within the range of another upside breakout.

Commodities

Gold and Silver both had up weeks, and the long-term trend remains up for both metals.

The grains markets resumed their uptrends following a week or so of corrective weakness, as Soybean Meal and Soybeans rallied this week. Corn and Wheat also printed new six month highs.

The energy markets have moved sharply lower this week, with Natural Gas leading the way to the downside. Crude Oil looks set to test a shelf of support this week and could turn lower, with plenty of potential room to the downside.

Currencies

The currency markets continue to trade without much direction in the short-term. The strength seen in the Dollar during the prior week’s trading was mostly corrected this week as the Dollar ended the week lower. The long-term trend remains against the Dollar overall.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel as they have for months. Upside breakouts remain very much in range, but so far no markets in the sector have been able to clear resistance.

Weekly Update – 27 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

The S&P 500 has closed down for four consecutive weeks. The Nasdaq 100 ended with an up week and printed a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, whilst the S&P 500 printed a hammer. Last week’s lows may be critical to the short-term direction of the market. If last week’s lows hold, we may see prices push back towards the recent highs. However, a break of the lows would likely lead to additional selling. The 40-level is holding on the RSI, which is bull market support, and the long-term trend remains up.

Commodities

Metals have seen additional weakness this week, but the long-term trend remains up across the sector.

The energy markets except for Natural gas remain in long-term uptrends, but continue to trade in a range with low volatility.

The grains markets have been in strong uptrends in recent weeks but saw some corrective weakness this week. The long-term trend remains up across the sector.

Currencies

The Dollar has had a good week with strength seen across the board. The Dollar Index itself has made a two month high. For now, the long-term trend remains against the Dollar.

Only the Yen remains in a current trade against the Dollar, and that trend may end this week as the Dollar corrects against the primary trend against all majors.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures continue to trade in a sideways quiet channel but are pressing up towards the higher end of the range, with upside breakouts very much in range.

Weekly Update – 20 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks have remained week and are at interesting short-term levels. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested support in terms of price and the 40-level on the RSI, which is bull market support. So far, both markets have held up. The long-term trend remains up for stock indices.

Commodities

Copper made a new high for the move and closed on the high of the week, which is often a sign that momentum will continue on Monday.

Gold and Silver continue to consolidate in low volatility sideways triangular patterns that have a bias to potentially breakout to the upside and resume the long-term bull trend. Breakouts from such low levels of volatility tend to be sharp. We could see some swift moves if and when the breakout is successful.

Currencies

It’s been another mixed week in the currency markets. The Australian Dollar continues its recent uptrend having held above support. The Kiwi broke out to a new high for the move but was unable to progress and closed back below prior resistance, but did still manage to make a new high close since July 2019.

USD/JPY remains in a long-term downtrend. Weakness took the market down to test support at the July low. That support has held so far.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures remain in a sideways quiet channel, which has been the case for several months. The sector is about as neutral as it can get as the market moves sideways with very low volatility and an RSI hovering around the midline.

Weekly Update – 13 September 2020 – LS Trader

Stocks

Stocks ended the week lower but remain in long-term uptrends. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both saw their respective RSIs find support at the 40 levels, keeping the bull range intact.

The Dax and the Nikkei have been stronger than their US counterparts and are within range of upside breakouts this week.

The long-term trend remains up for global stocks despite recent weakness.

Commodities

Copper remains the strongest of the metals in the short-term as Silver broke short-term support this week. Palladium has held up well and could complete a change of trend to up this week.

The energy markets are still in long-term uptrends but have broken out of their rectangle patterns to the downside. Weakness has been sufficient to put the RSI into the bear range on three markets in the sector. Further weakness will be required for a change of long-term trend to down.

Currencies

The currency markets have been mixed, but have seen sufficient dollar strength in the short-term to bring most trends against the Dollar to an end for now. However, the long-term trend remains very much against the Dollar. The Australian Dollar continues to hold up and bounced off support this week.

Interest rate futures

US interest rate futures continue to trade in what can best be described as a sideways quiet channel, in a long-term uptrend. Upside breakouts are within range for these markets. Volatility remains low.

The UK Long Gilts market has been more volatile but is also within a long-term uptrend.