The Nasdaq 100, which is the strongest of the stock indices, began the week with continued strength but then gave up the gains and ended the week lower. The general stock market has made no upside progress for a month and could be on the verge of rolling over. Despite the recent rally, the long-term trend remains down for all stock indices.
From last week: “Gold has held above support and continues to trade sideways in a triangle. The triangle has a slight upward bias in terms of the expected breakout being in the direction of the primary trend, which is up.” Gold broke out through the upside of the triangle in line with the primary trend and will now likely test and exceed the recent high at 1788.
The Dollar has had a good week, gaining against most of the majors. The Dollar Index is testing the upper boundary of a triangle and may break to the upside. EUR/USD is naturally the inverse pattern, so we could see a downside breakout for the Euro.
The British Pound already broke to the downside from a similar price congestion area, and now has little in the way from a technical standpoint to protect against a test of the recent low.
Interest rate futures
From last week: “Interest rate futures have continued to trade mostly sideways, with a slight upward bias, especially in the shorter-term markets. The 3-Month Eurodollar broke out to a new high but was unable to hold that high into the close.” The long-term uptrend remains intact for the shorter-term interest rate futures markets. Both the 10 Year T-Note and 30 Year T-Bond continue to coil just below resistance and could breakout to the upside.