We wish all our readers a very Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Stocks rallied again, with US stocks printing new all-time highs on Friday. Friday’s candle is potentially short-term bearish, as selling tails are evident above the real body, forming a shooting star. However, the long-term trend is unquestionably up.
The Dax and the Nikkei are both weaker than their US counterparts, but both remain in long-term uptrends and just below their recent highs.
The commodities markets continue to strengthen overall, with many looking to end the year in the black. Palladium has been the strongest market and is up 58.24% YTD in spite of its recent correction. Next year could be the year that commodities take off, especially if the dollar completes a change of trend to down and weakens.
The dollar has seen continued weakness this week, with the Dollar Index falling sharply on Friday. The Index looks set to test the recent low at 96.295, with a possible trend change to down well within range. The Dollar Index has been in a long-term uptrend based on our proprietary indicators, since May 2018.
Interest rate futures
Interest rate futures have been in a long-term uptrend for all of 2019. However, with some additional weakness, that could change in the coming weeks. All markets in the sector are within range of a change of trend to down, with the shorter-term markets being the weakest and most likely to break first. However, it should be noted that the trends are all still up and the markets are above key support, so must be considered to be neutral to bullish until that changes.